Note: A previous headline for this article was inaccurate and has been corrected. CityNews regrets the error.
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow would easily secure re-election if a municipal vote were held today—unless former mayor John Tory decided to run, according to a new Liaison Strategies poll conducted for the Toronto Star.
The survey, conducted between July 2 and July 6 using interactive voice response (IVR) technology, polled 1,000 Torontonians on their current voting preferences.
The poll found that 51 per cent of Torontonians approve of Mayor Chow’s performance. However, in a hypothetical rematch with Tory, only 34 per cent say they would vote for her. Tory trails closely by just four points.
When undecided voters are excluded, support rises to 39 per cent for Chow and 35 per cent for Tory, suggesting he remains a competitive contender despite the controversy that led to his resignation.
Regionally, Mayor Chow polls strongest in downtown Toronto and North York, while Tory maintains a clear lead in Etobicoke and is neck-and-neck with Chow in Scarborough.
A recent Toronto Star report cited unnamed sources who said Tory remains undecided about a potential mayoral run. His chances are described as everything from “more likely than not” to “50/50” and even “90 per cent.” Tory told TorontoToday last month that he was uncertain whether he’d seek re-election, stating that it’s “a big decision” with “many factors.”
The poll’s results determined that other potential candidates remain far behind in support, with Brad Bradford at 7 per cent, Ana Bailão at 6 per cent, Anthony Furey at 5 per cent, and Marco Mendicino at 3 per cent. In a head-to-head matchup between Chow and Tory, 12 per cent of voters remain undecided.
Chow’s support jumps 7 points without Tory in the race: poll
According to Liasion Strategies, should Tory not seek re-election, the votes would scatter, with 20 per cent moving to Mayor Chow, 27 per cent going to Bradford, 17 per cent going to Furey, 15 per cent to Bailão and only 1 per cent to Mendicino.
Tory resigned as Toronto’s mayor in February 2023 after admitting to a personal relationship with a former staff member—an affair he described as a “serious error in judgment.” Chow was elected mayor in 2023 following Tory’s resignation, defeating Bailão and former police chief Mark Saunders.
“Bottom line: if Tory stays out, Chow’s path to re-election becomes much smoother, especially if the field remains crowded and the vote stays split. Today, nearly half of decided voters say they’d vote for her,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “But the election isn’t today.”
Meanwhile, it appears that respondents are also split on whether the city is moving in the right direction, with 45 per cent stating that they’re happy with where Toronto is headed, compared to 44 per cent voicing displeasure.
Per the poll, Mayor Chow has taken a hit on most issue approval questions, with her score on transit taking the biggest hit, dropping a net 23 points. Torontonians also appear split on Mayor Chow’s work on bike lanes (44 per cent approve to 40 per cent disapprove), but more strongly support her work on encampments (45 per cent approve and 37 per cent disapprove).
The next Toronto mayoral election is slated for Oct. 26, 2026.